Opposition declares victory in by-election

BEIRUT (Reuters) Test of strength weeks before electing new president.

A Maronite Christian opposition candidate won a by-election to Lebanon’s parliament yesterday, an opposition leader said, dealing a blow to the country’s Western-backed ruling coalition.
Tens of thousands of Lebanese voted to choose successors to two assassinated anti-Syrian lawmakers in the latest showdown between the government and its opponents.

Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun said his candidate closely beat Amin Gemayel, a former president and a key member of the ruling coalition, in a by-election in the Metn district northeast of Beirut.

The race to win the Maronite seat left empty after Pierre Gemayel was killed in November had shaped up as a test of strength between the ruling coalition and the opposition weeks before parliament was due to elect a Maronite as president.

There was no official confirmation of Aoun’s announcement but opposition sources said Camille Khoury had won by a margin of some 500 votes from around 75,000 cast.

Earlier, unofficial results showed pro-government candidate Mohammad Amin Itani winning by a large margin the Sunni Muslim seat in a Beirut district vacated by the killing of MP Walid Eido in June.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora hailed the peaceful by-elections as a civilised response to political assassination.

“Democracy in Lebanon will defeat terrorism,” he said in a statement.

A nine-month-old political struggle has caused the worst civil strife since the 1975-1990 war, and some feared a new outbreak of violence during voting.

But no major incidents were reported at polling stations in the Christian heartland, where turnout was reported to be at around 45 per cent.

Thousands of Lebanese troops and police tightened security in the area, where flags and posters of the rival parties adorned balconies, electricity poles and cars.

Both Aoun and Gemayel, Pierre’s father and leader of the Phalange Party, had savaged each other during campaigning and both camps exchanged charges of forgery and vote-buying on election day.

Gemayel is a key player in the anti-Syrian majority coalition, which is supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia. Aoun is the main Christian leader in the opposition, which includes Hizbollah.

An independent monitoring body, Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections, said the polls were generally democratic but reported some violations.

The by-election for a Sunni seat in a Beirut district to chose a successor to Eido, who was assassinated in a car bomb attack in June, was a low-key affair. The winner, Itani, is a member of the main Sunni Future group of Saad Hariri.

The opposition had not launched a full-hearted challenge in Beirut due to the support Hariri enjoyed in that district. Turnout was around 20 per cent.

“This battle is to complete (Lebanon’s) sovereignty, confirm Cedar Revolution and accomplish the goals of the independence uprising,” Gemayel said, in reference to street protests that forced Syria to end its 29-year military presence back in 2005.

“Our main goal is participation (in government). We extend our arm to all the Lebanese to rebuild Lebanon and to salvage it from this big crisis,” Khoury said after voting.

Source: Bahrain Tribune.

India escapes U.S. list of worst human traffickers

Source: CNN, June 13, 2007.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- India, which advocacy groups say may have as many as 65 million forced laborers, was spared the worst ranking on the State Department's new list of nations where humans are bought and sold.

Countries not doing enough to combat human trafficking could face sanctions if they don't take steps to improve.

The annual Trafficking in Persons report, released Tuesday, says that as many as 800,000 people -- largely women and children -- are trafficked across borders each year. Many are forced into prostitution, sweatshops, domestic labor, farming and child armies.

U.S. officials told CNN the question of India's ranking caused a heated debate between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte.

Negroponte wanted India listed as a Tier 3 country, or worst offender. Rice overruled him out of concern about alienating the Indian government. India is on the Tier 2 watch list.

Rice agreed to undertake a special evaluation of India in six months, and then take action if India does not make improvements.

Mark Lagon, ambassador at large for the State Department's Trafficking in Persons office, said Tuesday that "many different variables" played into the decision.

"I would be perpetuating a fraud to say that we don't look at multiple factors in our relationship with countries any time we take a step on a particular issue like human trafficking," he said.

Worst offenders could face penalties.

The United States added Kuwait, Malaysia, Qatar and Bahrain to Tier 3 as countries that are destinations for trafficking victims who are exposed to sexual exploitation and forced labor. (Read the report).

Saudi Arabia, a nation considered friendly toward the United States, also is a Tier 3 country.

The State Department also lists Burma, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Uzbekistan and Venezuela as Tier 3 countries, defined as those "whose governments do not fully comply with the minimum standards" set by American law and "are not making significant efforts to do so."

These countries have 90 days to take additional steps to combat trafficking or face penalties. Penalties could take the form of sanctions, including withholding of non-humanitarian and non-trade-related U.S. assistance and U.S. opposition to assistance through international financial institutions.

President Bush can waive sanctions if he deems it in the United States' interest.

The Bush administration has increased attention to the trafficking problem in recent years as a part of its focus on promoting democracy and human rights as the cornerstone of Bush's foreign policy agenda, specifically in the Middle East.

The United States, however, is not immune to the problem. The State Department estimates 14,500 to 17,500 people are trafficked into the United States each year.

Trafficking victims rescued in the United States are eligible for a special visa and help getting their passports back from their traffickers.

Other countries on the watch list.

The United States put several countries on notice that they risk being put on the Tier 3 list if they fail to take adequate steps to combat human trafficking. China, the Dominican Republic, Egypt, Mexico, the Philippines and Russia were among 32 on a Tier 2 watch list, and under U.S. law will receive special scrutiny and be subject to an interim assessment before next year's report.

India was put on the watch list for the fourth year in a row "for its failure to show increasing efforts to tackle India's large and multidimensional problem," according to the report.

The report found while the Indian government was making significant efforts to combat trafficking, it "did not recognize the country's huge population of bonded laborers," which advocacy groups estimate to range from 20 million to 65 million.

The report also found efforts by Indian law enforcement agencies to punish traffickers "uneven and largely inadequate."

Rahul Chhabra, spokesman for the Indian Embassy in Washington, told CNN that the Indian government is reviewing the report.

The U.S. Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 mandated the State Department report as a way of combating human trafficking around the world and punishing those responsible.

Egyptian court upholds Mubarak decision to try Brotherhood members before military tribunal

By Agence France Presse (AFP)
Tuesday, May 15, 2007.

CAIRO: Egypt upheld a decision Monday by President Hosni Mubarak to have some 40 members of the opposition Muslim Brotherhood group tried by a military court, a judicial source said. Supreme Administrative Court Judge Issam Abdel-Aziz reversed a May 8 ruling in a lower court which declared invalid the president's decision, the source told AFP.

The military trial of the men, charged with money laundering and financing a banned organization, is now scheduled to resume on June 3.

The judge at the May ruling, Mohammad al-Husseini, said a military court would not "assure a fair trial" and the verdict was then described as "historic and unprecedented" by the banned but tolerated Brotherhood.

One of the accused is the group's financier and third-ranking official, Khayrat al-Shater.

The defendants and approximately 100 relatives had filed a suit against Mubarak but the president's lawyers argued that he had "absolute power."

Husseini said "there is nothing in Egyptian law called absolute power, so [Mubarak's] decision is illegal, because every decision must be based on the law and the constitution."

Egyptian authorities have kept Shater and the other accused behind bars despite a civilian court order in January to free the men.

The Muslim Brotherhood fielded candidates as independents in the 2005 legislative polls and recorded its best-ever results, securing 20 percent of seats in a Parliament controlled by Mubarak's National Democratic Party.

Many observers argued at the time that the movement might have won a larger share of seats had the election not been marred by widespread fraud and voter obstruction.

Last week, Parliament lifted the immunity of two members from the opposition Muslim Brotherhood, a prerequisite for sending them to trial.

Parliament also approved a new law on political rights, including an article enabling the authorities to disqualify any parliamentary candidates who use religious slogans or symbols - seen as a direct response to the Brotherhood's electoral successes in 2005. - AFP.

Palestinian interior minister quits in protest

Compiled by Daily Star staff
Tuesday, May 15, 2007.

The Palestinian interior minister resigned on Monday, rocking a two-month-old unity government after the biggest surge in factional fighting in months revived fears of civil war.

Despite an Egyptian-brokered truce, two Palestinian gunmen and two civilians caught in crossfire were killed in clashes between the Hamas and Fatah groups in in Gaza. Nine people have been shot dead since a new round of violence erupted on Friday.

"I told all parties I cannot accept being a minister without authority," Interior Minister Hani al-Qawasmeh told a news conference after Premier Ismail Haniyya accepted his resignation.

Qawasmeh accused Palestinian both Haniyya and President Mahmoud Abbas of having failed to support him.

"From the beginning, I faced obstacles that robbed the ministry of its powers and made my position empty, without authority," he said. "I reached the conclusion the whole [security] situation is not being dealt with seriously ... The combined force that has been agreed is made up of opposing forces that are fighting as we speak."

Information Minister Mustafa Barghouti said the Cabinet decided to deploy security forces controlled by Abbas and the interior minister under one leadership. He said the forces would answer to Haniyya, who would temporarily take charge of Qawasmeh's ministry.

"We urge all factions to with-draw gunmen from [Gaza] streets," Barghouti said.

"We will not let Gaza become a new Somalia," he added. "We will attack the security mess and beat it inside its home."

Haniyya urged Palestinians to protect the power-sharing agreement and called Fatah and Hamas officials to a meeting at his office later Monday.

On the ground, masked gunmen patrolled Gaza's streets as ordinary Palestinians opted to stay indoors and keep children home from school. Shops were shuttered and taxi drivers took detours to bypass checkpoints set up by rival armed groups.

Hamas' political chief, Khaled Meshaal, said Monday he wants to keep the power-sharing government despite the renewed fighting, a report said Monday. Speaking to Japan's Kyodo News, he said that talk of the Islamists wanting a government to themselves amounted to "false reports."

"We are keen on the national unity government," Meshaal told Kyodo News, which said it conducted the interview Sunday at his base in Syria. "The problem is not between us and Fatah," he was quoted as saying.

At the center of the latest fighting is a dispute over who controls the security forces. A majority of the 80,000 forces in the occupied West Bank and Gaza are loyal to Abbas, the Fatah leader, while Hamas set up its own 6,000-strong "Executive Force" last year.

In forming their coalition in March, Hamas and Fatah put off dealing with the explosive security control problem. At the time, the two sides agreed on Qawasmeh, a long-time civil servant, as the interior minister who would be in charge of the security forces. However, there was little expectation that Qawasmeh would actually be given the authority to restore order and integrate the rival units.

Two weeks ago, a frustrated Qawasmeh threatened to resign, complaining that his plan had been ignored by both sides.

The latest round of fighting began last week after Abbas ordered the deployment of 3,000 troops in Gaza, over the objections of Hamas. Clashes intensified Sunday, with the killing of a local Fatah militant leader.

Among four killed Monday was a truck driver who was delivering bread and was struck by a stray bullet during a firefight near a Gaza City security compound. Three Fatah supporters were shot dead in clashes in Gaza City and the southern town of Khan Younis.

In one incident Sunday, two employees of a Hamas-affiliated newspaper were pulled out of a taxi at a Fatah-manned roadblock and shot dead, according to Hamas' account.

Reporters Without Borders, an international press watchdog group, expressed "deep concern" about the killing of the newspaper employees.

Earlier, sources in Fatah said tensions could lead to the collapse of the unity government within days.

Moin Rabbani, an expert on Palestinian affairs at the International Crisis Group think tank, said the new government was now in jeopardy unless it acted more decisively to exert control and overcome factionalism.

"Unless there is a real effort to resolve these issues, it could be the beginning of the end of this experiment and, should this government collapse, the situation could get very much worse," he said.

However, Abbas is unlikely to dissolve the coalition soon because it would be difficult to hold new elections in the violent climate. Hamas would certainly object to new elections after winning a four-year term in last year's vote. - Agencies.

Siniora officially asks UN to form Hariri tribunal

Source: The Daily Star.

Opposition slams 'stubbornness' of premier

By Rym Ghazal and Nafez Qawas
Daily Star staff
Tuesday, May 15, 2007.

BEIRUT: In an official letter to the United Nations on Monday, Prime Minister Fouad Siniora requested help with the establishment of an international tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri "as a matter of urgency." "We called on the UN Security Council to establish the court as soon as possible after all possible means to ratify it in Lebanon have failed," Minister of Information Ghazi Aridi told reporters after a Cabinet meeting late Monday.

Siniora sent the letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday morning. The letter, copies of which were released to the media, asked the Security Council to set up the court by whatever means "it deems appropriate." It went on to explain that attempts to ratify the tribunal in Parliament had failed.

"We found all the doors closed in Lebanon regarding this issue," said Aridi.

Opposition leaders said on Monday that the government had made no real effort to reach a compromise on the tribunal.

"We worked hard to turn the court into a point of unity between the Lebanese," Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil told reporters after a meeting with Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun.

"But the stubbornness of the head of this illegitimate government and his followers ruined any chance of that," he said. "I don't believe this move will help any of the current problems."

The government first officially sought the world body's help in establishing the court in a petition submitted on April 10. Since then, government supporters have repeatedly called for the establishment of the court under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which would bypass parliamentary approval.

The opposition has expressed concern that the court will be used for political ends and other reservations.

"There is no basis for all the fears and worry over the establishment of the court under Chapter 7," said Aridi.

A spokesman at UN headquarters in New York told The Daily Star on Monday that the world body had been "expecting" the prime minister [sic] letter but that no hearings on the issue were planned.

"Currently there is nothing scheduled this month with the UN Security Council on the court issue," he said.

Ban has urged Lebanese officials to work on reaching.

Japanese PM sets 1st visit to U.S.

Source: CNN.

TOKYO, Japan (AP) -- Japan's prime minister will make his first trip to the U.S. as premier this month for summit talks on North Korea and Iraq, against a backdrop of renewed controversy over Japan's use of military brothels during World War II.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will travel the United States April 26-27 and hold meetings with U.S. President George W. Bush at Camp David before traveling to the Middle East, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki announced Wednesday.

The visit comes at a sensitive time, with U.S. lawmakers considering a nonbinding resolution urging Japan to apologize formally for forcing thousands of women into the brothels.

Abe has come under fire at home and abroad for suggesting in early March that there is no proof that the Imperial government or military coerced women into the brothels during the war, apparently backtracking a 1993 apology.

In a 20-minute phone call with Bush late Tuesday to prepare for the trip, Abe said he stands by the government's landmark 1993 apology. Abe said he broached the subject to clarify any misunderstandings.

"Since my remarks on the so-called comfort women issue have not been accurately reported, I expressed my true intention to President Bush just to clarify," Abe said.

Bush told Abe that he appreciated his candor and noted that Japan today is not the Japan of World War II, National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in Washington on Tuesday.

The upcoming meeting will not be Abe's first with Bush. The two leaders met on the sidelines of a Pacific Rim summit in Vietnam last year, after Abe took office in September.

Iraq, North Korea on agenda

The U.S. summit will touch on the ongoing war in Iraq, for which Japan has provided noncombat military support, as well as the six-nation talks on reining in North Korea's nuclear program, Shiozaki said.

"We hope to confirm that the Japan-U.S. alliance is a stabilizing factor for the region, and we plan to discuss ways to strengthen the alliance for the world and for Asia," Shiozaki said.

Japanese prime ministers usually visit the U.S., Japan's biggest ally, soon after taking office, but Abe has stressed his all-around foreign policy by visiting Europe and Asian neighbors first.

Abe told reporters Wednesday that the alliance with the U.S. is "the basis for our diplomacy and security" and added that he hopes to strengthen ties with Washington. About 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Japan under a mutual security pact as a legacy of World War II.

After the U.S. visit, Abe will head to the Middle East for meetings with leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt, he said. Those discussions will include the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the Iraq war and Iran's nuclear ambitions, Shiozaki said.

"The Middle Eastern region, especially the countries in the Gulf area, are extremely important for Japan's energy security," he said. "We plan to discuss ways to achieve stability in the Middle East."

Last week, Japan's parliament approved a two-year extension of its airlift mission in support of Iraqi reconstruction. Tokyo had earlier backed the U.S.-led invasion and provided troops for a non-combat, humanitarian mission in the southern city of Samawah beginning in 2004.

Japan withdrew its ground troops in July 2006, and has since expanded its Kuwait-based air operations.

Abe's visit to the United States follows a string of other overseas calls and marks a break with tradition for new Japanese leaders who have tended to prioritize U.S. summits.

Abe made his first overseas trip as prime minister to Beijing and Seoul in early October. He visited Vietnam for a summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November. Abe also met with Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in the Philippines last month. Abe continued his travels to Europe.

French Total oil boss under formal investigation

Source: Middle East Times.

AFP March 23, 2007

PARIS -- A French judge has placed the chief executive of the Total oil group under formal investigation on suspicion of paying bribes to secure a major gas field deal in Iran.

Christophe de Margerie, who is already under investigation over the Iraq "oil-for-food" bribes scandal, was officially warned of the new accusations Thursday night after he had spent more than a day in detention.

The judge placed Margerie, who has only been Total's chief executive since February, under investigation for suspected "corruption of foreign public agents and misuse of corporate assets," a legal source said.

Margerie was given conditional release.

The French oil company is suspected of paying top Iranian officials nearly 100 million Swiss francs ($80 million) through two Swiss bank accounts to win a contract for the South Pars offshore gas field in 1997.

Margerie was detained by French police Wednesday before being transferred to a serious financial crime unit a day later, judicial officials reported. Four other serving and former Total executives were also detained but later released without charge.

In a statement, Total said that its chief executive had been placed "under formal investigation in proceedings related to the development of the South Pars project in Iran."

Being placed under judicial investigation is one step short of being charged with a crime in the French legal system. It does not necessarily mean that 55-year-old Margerie is heading for trial.

A case can be dropped if a judge is unable to sustain his accusations against an individual.

In the statement Total expressed "its full support for its employees and confirms that the agreements for the development of the South Pars project were entered into in compliance with applicable law."

It also said that the company was "confident" that the "investigation will establish the absence of any illegal activities and reaffirms that Total adheres to a strict code of conduct regardless of the difficulties linked to its activities and the environments in which it operates."

The suspicions center on a contract Total won from the Iranian oil company NIOC for the South Pars field.

The French judge is partly relying on testimony given by an employee of Norwegian oil company Statoil who revealed the existence of a corruption system in Iran during an investigation in Norway.

According to sources, money was paid to Iranian officials between 1996 and 2003 when Margerie was Total's Middle East director.

Last year he was charged with complicity with fraud and corruption by the same judge as part of an investigation into a French link to the "oil-for-food" scandal in Iraq.

Companies were said to have paid money to get oil deals from Iraq while it was under UN sanctions during the Saddam Hussein years.

Several other Total executives and former executives, including Patrick Rambaud, who was also questioned over the Iran deal, have also been put under investigation as part of the "oil-for-food" scandal.

Known in the company as "Big Moustache," Margerie was promoted to head of Total in February in succession to Thierry Desmarest who had overseen huge expansion of the group and is president of the supervisory board.

Margerie studied at the elite ESCP business school in Paris, joining the finance department of Total in 1974, rising to the managing committee in 1992, and becoming director for the Middle East region in 1995.

French Judge grills Total chief over corruption accusations

Source: Yahoo News.

A French judge on Thursday questioned Total oil chief executive Christophe de Margerie over corruption suspicions surrounding a major gas deal in Iran, bringing formal charges a step closer.

The French oil giant is suspected of paying top Iranian officials nearly 100 million Swiss francs (60 million euros, 80 million dollars) through two Swiss bank accounts to win a contract in 1997

Margerie was detained by police on Wednesday and on Thursday was transferred to the serious financial crime unit, legal sources said.

He was later taken to the office of magistrate, Philippe Courroye, who has spent three months investigating the South Pars contract that Total secured with the Iranian oil company NIOC.

Courroye could place de Margerie under judicial investigation which would be the first stage toward formal charges.

Four other Total executives, including financial director Robert Castaigne and a former senior executive, Patrick Rambaud, who was in charge of Total's negotiating section, were also detained on Wednesday but released late in the day without charge.

Total has confirmed that the executives have been questioned over the South Pars offshore field deal. But a spokesman said the group, France's biggest company in terms of turnover, supports Margerie and "confirms that the agreements signed respected the law."

If Margerie is not charged he could still be warned that he is needed as a witness or given an unconditional release.

According to sources close to the inquiry, the money was paid to Iranian officials between 1996 and 2003, when Margerie was Total's Middle East director. The Swiss accounts belonged to a suspected intermediary in the deal. Switzerland has frozen some 9.5 million euros from the accounts.

The oil group's chief executive is no stranger to controversy.

Last year he was charged with complicity with fraud and corruption by the same judge as part of an investigation into a French link to the "oil-for-food" scandal in Iraq.

Companies were said to have paid money to get oil deals from Iraq while it was under UN sanctions during the Saddam Hussein years.

Several other Total executives and former executives, including Rambaud, have also been charged as part of the "oil-for-food" scandal.

Known in the company as "Big Moustache," Margerie was promoted to managing director of Total in February in succession to Thierry Desmarest who had overseen huge expansion of the group and is president of the supervisory board.

Deal with Syria, but first impose Lebanese sovereignty

By Michael Young

Add Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht to the list of dignitaries who have left Damascus biting their fists in frustration. After meeting with his Syrian counterpart, Walid al-Moallem, on Tuesday, de Gucht said he was "disappointed" that Syria would not surrender its nationals to a mixed tribunal being set up to try suspects in Rafik Hariri's assassination. Moallem added: "If the United Nations wants anything of Syria, then it must talk to Syria and base the statutes of the tribunal on Syrian law."

That's revealing coming from a regime that supposedly had nothing to do with Hariri's murder, and that often affirms its "non-involvement" in the resultant judicial process. Thanks to Syria's continued refusal to concede anything on the tribunal, the Lebanese crisis continues. This coming weekend the Syrians will get a chance to practice more of their brand of diplomacy when Iraq's neighbors meet in Baghdad to discuss the country's future. The United States should not give Syria an opportunity there to break free from the tribunal, which provides the only real leverage over President Bashar Assad to change his regime's behavior.

It is perhaps understandable that a number of policymakers and analysts in the US feel the Bush administration's present policy of isolating Syria is going nowhere. Their framework for saying so is Iraq. My friend David Ignatius expressed this view in the commentary published above, pointing out that the "administration should also start a real dialogue with Syria - and in the process shelve any half-baked ideas about regime change that may be lurking in the Old Executive Office Building. The Syrians pose a deadly threat in Lebanon, which is all the more reason to be talking with them." Isolation, the argument goes, also isolates the US. If Washington negotiates, it can use its weight to bring about desirable outcomes.

There are several problems with this assumption when it comes to Syria. The first is that opening a new page with Syria is premature. If the aim of negotiations is to advance one's aims, then Syria has shown no willingness to consider those of the US and the UN - who told Syria in late 2004 that it was time to end its interference in Lebanon's affairs and recognize Lebanese sovereignty. To talk now, while the Syrians threaten Lebanon on a daily basis, would validate their claim that threats work, and that Syria can bring envoys to its door by spawning instability in Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian territories. That's precisely the wrong message to send. The right message is that Syria can only put an end to its isolation once it accepts international law - which in Lebanon means accepting the tribunal and giving up on the dream of reimposing its hegemony over the country.

That's why defending the Hariri tribunal is so essential. The body has international backing, which means that the credibility of the five permanent members of the Security Council is tied into its success. By initiating a dialogue with Syria, by therefore implying that the crime the tribunal is seeking to punish shouldn't reflect badly on relations with Damascus, the US would empty the tribunal of its meaning. Why give up this weapon when it can make future negotiations more successful?

The quid pro quo demanded of Assad would be a simple one, and the Saudis and the Egyptians have already floated it in one way or another: Any effort to narrow the Hariri tribunal's statutes, or even to improve relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria, requires that Syria first change its conduct in Lebanon. Nor is isolation of Syria necessarily failing. Even Syrian allies like Iran and Russia can see that Assad's stance on the tribunal is untenable and might cost them politically. Iran is said to have agreed with Saudi Arabia on the principle of establishing the tribunal, even if it won't take a position that might alienate Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly told the Saudis that if the tribunal were blocked in Lebanon, Russia might abstain in a Security Council vote to place it under the authority of Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

A second problem with the invitation to dialogue with Assad is that there is no evidence Syria will get the message and alter its behavior. Here is the Catch-22: If you engage Syria, Assad will assume this is due to his intransigence, which will encourage him to remain intransigent in the expectation that this will bring more rewards. The Saudis and Egyptians know the pitfalls of this logic, but also see the Syrians caught in a more sinister vicious circle: Because Assad is weak he must export instability, which is only isolating him further in the region, making him even weaker.

The Europeans, never shy about engaging Syria for the sake of engagement, particularly with so many troops deployed in South Lebanon, are also beginning to see the light. De Gucht's regrets echoed those of the European Union's representative in Beirut, Patrick Laurent. He recently admitted that the EU had "tried everything [with Syria], as did many others, employing both gentle means and pressure." To no avail.

A third reason to be wary of engaging Syria is that Assad doesn't have the confidence to carry through on many of the demands that would be made of him. The Syrian president can intimidate his domestic foes, but his authority rests on a narrower power base than his father's. He can talk to the Israelis, but it's doubtful that he can reach a final deal with them, since peace would mean substantially dismantling the security apparatus that keeps him in office. He can pretend to help stabilize Iraq, but knows that actually doing so would mean that Syria becomes less relevant. He can claim to have played a positive role in the Mecca accord between the Palestinian factions, but he knows that this only came after he failed to sponsor such an agreement himself. Today, Assad fears a Hamas exit from the Syrian orbit, which is one reason why he has been trying to place pro-Syrian groups in a Palestinian national unity government.

And, most important, Assad knows that if he were to give up on Lebanon finally and unconditionally, he might face the wrath of those within his own regime who silently blame him for the debacle of 2005. But this all begs the question: Why, therefore, should Syria abandon Lebanon at all, or capitulate in Iraq and in the Palestinian territories, if nothing is to be gained from these concessions?

The reason is that Assad, though weak, would thus be able to win his long-term political survival. Such steps would buy him Arab and international forbearance. A new attitude would mean less resistance to a narrowing of the Hariri tribunal's statutes, more vital investment in Syria, a beneficial Syrian relationship with the US and the EU; and, once Assad can broaden his power base, peace with Israel. But building up Assad's confidence and then expecting him to relinquish his cards makes no sense. If a power struggle with Syria is unavoidable, so be it. With major Arab states, the US, the UN and the Europeans on the same wavelength, it will be tough for Assad to impose his will - unless the bell of dialogue saves him first.

That's why the US should remind Syria at the Baghdad conference that deeper contacts remain undesirable. Dealing with Iran on Iraq may be inevitable; dealing with Syria is not, particularly after Assad burned more bridges to the Sunnis by trying and failing to seize control of the Iraqi Baath Party. The Syrians have to be made to realize that their regime can only last if they make fundamental concessions in the region. Assad is too brittle to demand more than recognition of his survival.

Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.

Saudi authorities warn foreigners of attacks

Embassies issue travel warnings to nationals

Compiled by Daily Star staff.

Authorities in Saudi Arabia have warned foreign embassies that a group blamed for last month's killing of four French nationals could strike again, diplomats said on Wednesday.

"We received a message from the Saudi foreign ministry, addressed to all embassies and diplomatic and international representations in Riyadh, stating that the group responsible for the killing of our compatriots on February 26 might perpetrate other similar acts in town or elsewhere," a French Embassy spokesman said.

"We have reacted immediately by informing our nationals of the warning which urged foreigners in general to be cautious and to call police as soon as they notice that they are being monitored," he said.

Interior Ministry spokesman Mansour Turki could not provide immediate comment.

Some French residents in Riyadh said they received text messages on Tuesday from their embassy informing them of the Saudi warning.

Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday it had arrested some suspects in the killing of the four French nationals and gave 24 hours to two Saudi nationals to turn themselves in.

Abdullah Sayer al-Mohammadi and Nasser bin Latif al-Balawi have not abided by the ultimatum which expired at 0500 GMT on Wednesday, Turki said.

The ministry offered 7 million riyals ($1.9 million) for information leading to the arrest of the two men whose pictures were published on front pages of local newspapers.

The four French nationals, including a teenager, were killed on February 26 during a desert trip in the Arab country. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Saudi authorities said that two attackers perpetrated the killing which was the first attack on foreigners since 2005.

The US and British embassies in Riyadh also urged their citizens to be vigilant in the wake of the killings.

In a new warden message posted on its Web site, the US Embassy said it had been notified by Saudi authorities that "embassy personnel should defer travel to desert areas in northern Saudi Arabia from Medina, north to Qurayat, and in the vicinity of the ruins at Madain Saleh until further notice."

The slain Frenchmen were returning to their homes in Riyadh after visiting the historic site of Madain Saleh, a popular destination for Western expatriates.

The US warden message said that since May 2006, US diplomatic personnel had been restricted from "recreational activities" outside the city limits of Riyadh, Jeddah on the Red Sea, and the Dahran/Dammam/Khobar area in the east.

"The embassy recommends American citizens living in Saudi Arabia consider this information and take appropriate personal security precautions," it added.

Saudi Arabia has vowed to crack down on Islamic militants and condemned the attack.

Islamic militants swearing allegiance to Al-Qaeda launched a violent campaign to topple the US-allied Saudi monarchy in 2003, carrying out suicide bomb attacks on foreigners and government installations, including the oil industry.

Some of the estimated 100,000 Western residents in the kingdom left after the earlier attacks, reducing the number to around 60,000, but many have since returned, diplomats said.

Tough security measures and a powerful publicity campaign helped crush the violence but analysts and diplomats have said the underlying drives of radical Islamic ideology and anger at Western policy in the region remain strong. - AFP.

Iraqi MP: Some lawmakers to lose immunity

By Agence France Presse (AFP).

BAGHDAD: Iraq's Parliament is to be asked to strip immunity from several of its members to allow them to be investigated for various alleged crimes, senior lawmaker Abbas al-Bayyati said Wednesday. "There is request prepared by the executive bodies and sent to the Supreme Court urging Parliament to lift the immunity on some members so investigations can be carried out. This is not an arrest order," he said. Confirmation of the impending probe came as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki prepared to announce a reshuffle in Iraq's national unity government, but Bayyati insisted the vote was not a political witch hunt. "This action is not political. Complaints had been made against some of these people before they entered Parliament. The accusations are not based on their opinions. An MP enjoys immunity over his views," he said. Officials said the vote could come as early as Monday. - AFP